Your Questions About Successful Trading System

Mary asks…

How is the government currently helping animal and plant populations?

It doesn’t really seem like they are doing anything to benefit the animals and plants. Do you guys know anything about what they are doing?

John answers:

They maintain sanctuaries and a MASSIVE parks program for one. They also maintain a list of protected/ threatened/ endangered species that are protected to the fulllest extent of the law. Non protected species are managed by hunting/trapping/fishing regulations that help keep successful species from overrunning their enviornments.
They operate fish hatcheries for the less plentiful fishes(that are possible to raise in a hatchery) and release numbers of fish every year.

They have modified dam/lock systems to allow for animals.

Alot is being done actually. The biggest threats to wildlife come from black market trading and poaching and continued habitat encroachment(which is a tough one to deal with.)

As for the habitat encroachment problem…stop having babies. If you have a baby you better not complain about the “poor animals”

Mandy asks…

Personal liability insurance and filing my own taxes for work?

I am interested in a contract therapy job but they require me to carry liability insurance and file my own taxes. Have you ever had to do this? Is it a complete pain in the butt or is it worth it to do them since the job pays very well? Where do I find personal liability insurance and how much would it cost? And how do I pay my own taxes? Should I get a CPA? How much does that cost? I live in Florida.
Oh and I already have another job but this is just for extra money so not worried about them not paying benefits.

John answers:

Consulting with an experienced professional about your self employed business would probably be a very smart thing to do.
All of your gross income from all sources of worldwide income will be reported on your correctly completed 1040 federal income tax return.
In general, taxpayers may deduct the ordinary and necessary expenses for conducting a trade or business. An ordinary expense is an expense that is common and accepted in the taxpayer’s trade or business. A necessary expense is one that is appropriate for the business. Generally, an activity qualifies as a business if it is carried on with the reasonable expectation of earning a profit.
The independent contractor self employment income will be reported on the schedule C of the 1040 tax form and you will be responsible for the 15.3% of the social security and medicare tax on your net profit from the business operation you also may need to make some quarterly estimated tax payments for the tax year 2010. The last payment would be January 18 2011.
You would have to be sure that you handle your business deductions correctly for your business operation.
For instructions and forms go to the IRS.gov website and use the search box for publication 334 a very good place to start with examples.
Publication 463 Travel, Entertainment, Gift, and Car Expenses
Use the search box at the IRS.gov website for Small Business and Self-Employed Tax Center
Filing Season Central is your one stop assistance center for filing your business returns. This includes Highlights of Tax Law Changes, Tax Tips, and more.
2 of the seven tax tips for starting a business enclosed below.
#4 Good records will help you ensure successful operation of your new business. You may choose any record keeping system suited to your business that clearly shows your income and expenses. Except in a few cases, the law does not require any special kind of records. However, the business you are in affects the type of records you need to keep for federal tax purposes.
#7 Visit the Business section of the IRS gov website for resources to assist entrepreneurs with starting and operating a new business. Go to the IRS gov website and use the search box for the below referenced material
*Starting A Business
*Operating A Business
*Closing A Business
*Publication 4591, Small Business Federal Tax Responsibilities (PDF 470.1K)

http://www.irs.gov/

http://access.wa.gov/business/taxes.aspx

Chris asks…

What is your opinion regarding automated trading systems?

Most reviews that I’ve read are positive. I understand that there are some risks. I was most interested in automated software that requires very little input or expertise from the trader (me). Do you know which one would be the most user friendly for the beginner?
Yes…after researching it more after posting this question, I have lost interest.

John answers:

I developed my first trading system in 1989. It worked for several years, then stopped working.

In the Nineties, one of my first jobs with my new trading mentor (let’s call him Gary) was to test automated trading systems. My mentor was a futures broker that worked on the floor of the CBOE for 10 years and knew a lot of traders and had quite a few clients. I’m an engineer, with a dual degree and heavy computer experience in a previous life. Several clients and friends brought automated trading systems to us, and over the course of two years, we tested 12 trading systems. They ranged in price from a few hundred dollars up to $25,000. They brought these systems to us because they didn’t work.

Gary could make two of them work, with his greater experience, and I could make a few of them work by back-testing and tweaking the settings. But mine would only work for awhile, then stopped working and lost more money than if they hadn’t worked at all to begin with. You could actually fade their signals and make more money.

Although all of these systems were “proven” to work during some historical period in time, none of them worked in real time. It’s why they all give a disclaimer that past results do not guarantee future results. The guy that paid $25,000 for his system, lost another $10,000 trying to trade it.

About five years ago, I finally developed another intraday trading system that actually makes money trading the index futures. I now have more than three decades of trading experience under my belt and know exactly what to expect from my system. I am successful with it, but I’ll guarantee you that nobody else could trade it right out of the box. There is simply no way for a computer program to allow for every condition that might exist in the markets. My system is designed for momentum when prices are moving in a specific market, but when price goes into trading ranges (like the markets do most of the time), it chops itself to pieces and loses money. I can only turn it on during certain times of the day, and some days not at all, or it will consistently lose money. Once again, you could make more money fading the signal in range trading markets.

Not only do markets fluctuate, they change the way they fluctuate constantly. Markets are constantly evolving. Call it what you want, but the markets are destined/designed to take money from the most people and give it to the few who understand the process.

Think about the thousands of indicators available with any trading software. RSI and Stochastics are two of the more popular, and there are hundreds of momentum indicators, and all of them are “good” indicators. Some people can make them work, but 90% of all traders fail. If there is something that works for too many people, then the markets will recognize that and eventually work out ways for those people to lose with false signals being generated.

Without human input, without knowledge of the process, without being able to recognize change in the markets or less than ideal conditions, no computer program available to the individual will be consistent.

We used to joke around with our clients that “traders trade”, and those that can’t trade write books and trading programs. Think about it. If you make lots of money trading, why would you sell software?

Richard asks…

Experienced traders, can u recomend a specific trading system or mentor, u have used?

John answers:

There are really no “mentors” that avail themselves to the general public since most are too busy assisting their own staff.

Firms provide their trading department with the own in-house “systems” for their traders. My floor traders used their own “system” while the fixed income, NASDAQ, and commodities traders each had their own way of trading. The system that work for one set of traders WILL NOT work for other traders.

To be a trader you must first learn how to invest. You must know the products and the markets in which they trade, how security transactions are cleared and more importantly you must know the rules that govern those products and markets. So you must know what you’re doing, why you’re doing it, and how to do it. You should start by reading “Investing for Dummies” by Eric Tyson.

Here’s a list of books you should consider, at least read half of them
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered, by Gallea
How to Trade in Stocks, Jesse Livermore
Millionaire Traders, Lein & Schlosberg
One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Edwin Lefevre
The Disciplined Trader, Mark Douglas
Trader Vic-Methods of a Wall Street Master, Victor Sperandeo
Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation, Victor Sperandeo
Trading for a Living, by Alexander Elder
Trading in the Zone, Mark Douglas

And when you think you want to trade, try some paper trading to test your skills without spending you money http://simulatorinvestopedia.com/ http://www.moneyworks4me.com/
and/or http://www.tradingsimulation.com/

Before you enter your first order you need to address four major policies and have very strong discipline to follow them
1 – You need a written sound trading/investment plan with rules that will not only help you but more importantly protect you, mostly from yourself. Always use stops either to protect you on the down side or to lock in profits on the up side. Never trade on emotions, when emotions get involved walk away. Don’t try to out-smart the market, you’ll loose but if you always take what the market is willing to give you, you’ll be successful. Other words, you don’t trade against the trend since the market is always right. And NEVER trade on emotions, once you let emotions in your trades you will loose
2 – A written money management program is essential. Remember never invest 100% of your capital into any one security and never have 100% of your capital invested. Never go into a trade without knowing when and where you are going to get out of it. Never let a loss on a trade get greater than 8%-10%, always take you loss and walk away – don’t loose more than you need to and don’t be afraid to take the loss. Remember you never can get hurt taking a profit. Never average down, but you can average up.
3 – You must have sufficient trading/investment capital. Use your own money, there’s no need to go into debt so that you can trade and/or invest. Margin can be used but only with restraints, never let the account wall below 45% equity. Unless you fully understand margins you should not use it.
4 – A full and complete understanding of the rules & regulations of the industry. If your going to play in the game be sure you know the rules of the game and always follow them.

Unless you are willing to study and follow the above you will never make it as a trader. To be successful as a trader it takes work and constant study of the markets and the products traded in those markets, there is no easy way.

Thomas asks…

Whats a good Forex trading system?

I am just getting into trading forex online…what is a good online trading system with good profitiability? I’m just a beginner, I don’t know much about it but i know a little, but am trying to learn as much as possible. Right now i just want a basic good trading system that I can invest a little bit of money and try to turn that into good sums of cash. Also one that has free practice accounts.
I don’t mean I want someone’s system… I meant like and actual online company that does it. Kind of how Ameritrade is a good “system” for stocks, whats a good “system” for Forex?

John answers:

I’ve read a lot about Forex, but I’ve never seen a proven profitable forex strategy, despite the claims of some scam web sites. Playing Forex can appear alluring, but the majority of people who try it lose money. All you have to do is do a web search on the words “Forex” and “lose” to see this is the consensus.

Forex is what we call a “zero sum” game. You are making a bet with someone else about whether a currency will rise or fall. For every winner there has to be a loser. If you are smarter than the average player, you may make money. If you are dumber than the average player, you are likely to lose money. Most of the people making the “bets” in Forex are highly trained professionals at banks and other institutions. You are unlikely to beat them at this game.

Actually Forex is not quite a zero sum game. It’s a slightly negative sum game as the Forex broker takes a small percentage each time in the spread. It’s a small amount but over a hundred trades, it ends up being a considerable amount of money. So the average player is likely to lose money, and remember the average player is a highly trained professional and probably smarter than you.

There is a lot of luck in Forex, and if you play it, you will have some periods of time where you make money. This is usually because you are having a lucky streak, not because you have suddenly become an expert Forex player. However, most people are unwilling to admit their success is due to luck. They become convinced they have a system that works, and lose a lot of money trying to refine it.

Further complicating the problem is the large number of Forex scams on the internet. Most Forex websites are of questionable honesty. You will find many people on the Internet that claim they made a lot of money using Forex. They are usually liars trying to make money. They will say: “Go to Forexcrap . Com/q2347.” The “q2347” is a signal to the Forexcrap site that you are being referred to them by “q2347.” If they sell something to you, “q2347” gets a kickback. These coded signals can be hidden by different methods in the link. Other people will refer you to their own private website or blog for the purpose of trying to get money off you. Also there are a good number of trolls out there that like to pretend they are successful forex traders just for the fun of it.

I would recommend not trying to do Forex at all, unless you are a trained professional. It’s like playing poker with people better than you, with the house constantly taking a small percentage from the pot.

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