How Can Climate Decades into the Future be Predicted When Weather Forecasts Beyond 3 Days Are Unreliable?
Weather forecasting is an initial conditions problem. Climate forecasting is a boundary condition problem.
Initial condition that define the current state of the atmosphere are updated with every iteration of a forecast model. Beyond the first set, the initial conditions for each successive iteration are based on the output of the model and could be in error. These errors accumulate with each future iteration and the weather forecast skill deteriorates with time.
Measured initial conditions are therefore useless to climate prediction models, which are weather forecast models adapted for assessing climate change.
Rather than initial conditions, boundary conditions are described:
“Climate forecasts are produced in a different fashion, as here the problem is fundamentally a boundary value one. The circulation of atmosphere and ocean in such a climate model is not dependent on the initial state of the model but rather on the boundary conditions like the input of solar energy and the chemical composition of the Earth’s atmosphere (e.g. greenhouse gases). You cannot predict the weather for individual days with a climate forecast (for example, the question of the temperature in Hamburg on the 23.12.2005 is meaningless), but you can say something about the average conditions for an area (e.g. the average January temperature between 2010 and 2020), as well as the probability and magnitudes of deviations from this average.”
In other words, the little unknowable details are less valuable in a predictive sense than are large scale parameters confined to within a range of likely variability when assessing climate change.
This question often comes up, so I thought I would ask it and provide my own insight in the process. I answered my own question and welcomed others to answer as well.
It’s an issue of short-term noise vs. Long-term signal again.
In the short-term, the weather is extremely chaotic and very difficult to predict. But over the long-term, the short-term variations tend to average out. A good example is ENSO – we can barely predict what it’s going to do over the next few months, but over the long-term the El Niños and La Niñas cancel eachother out, and they have no effect on the global temperature trend or climate changes.
The analogy I like to use is with gambling in a casino. There’s no way to predict if you’ll win a given bet, or come out ahead on a given day or a given week. But if you play long enough, it’s a pretty safe prediction that you’ll end up losing money. Or with the stock market – it can do anything on a given day or given week. But over the long-term, it’s a safe bet that it will go up.
The long-term predictions are easier to make because the short-term noise becomes less prevalent the longer you look into the future.
What deniers like eric don’t understand – because they don’t want to understand it, because they need AGW to be wrong – is that climate models don’t make projections over timespans of less than a decade. Over those short periods, short-term effects like ENSO, which are impossible to predict, dominate. The reason the planet hasn’t warmed much over the last 8 years is that there have been mostly La Niña cycles over that period. No, climate models didn’t predict that. Nor did they attempt to.
How does the rest of the world interact with US financial markets?
So I understand that the rest of the world makes payments to US households and firms through the goods market, and the rest of the world can be involved in our stock market, but can US companies and individuals borrow money from the rest of the world through financial markets? And what about vice versa?
In every way imaginable.
Foreign companies and government have bought out U.S. Banks
and have set up their own banks in the U.S. And vice versa (American banks have branches all around the world)
Foreign stocks are available on the U.S. Markets through ADRs
and foreign investment mutual funds, and, now, through E-trade:
And vice versa (U.S. Stocks can appear on foreign stock exchanges the same way)
Corporations (both U.S. And foreign) can issue bonds globally
How can I know if I am in the Lockerz June 2010 General Redemption?
What way is there for me to know if I am in it or not? Because I think I got the 50 ptz a couple days before June 26th, which they said the deadline was at one point, but then before that they said the deadline was June 21st, so how am I supposed to know if I am in it or not? Because if I’m not I don’t want to waste my time making sure I’m there when it happens.
Save your time buddy. Lockerz items go by REALLY FAST. Look at the videos on YouTube. People are on Lockerz 24/7 reloading their web pages and when they see the message “Redemption is live” they quickly go to ptzplace.lockerz.com and by the time they get to the prizes everything is gone. Retro redemption was only for people who bought something 0.79 cents or more. There is absolutely nothing 0.79 cents on Lockerz. The cheapest thing is 5 dollars and that went out of stock in a day. There were WAY less people in the retro redemption than there is gonna be in the general redemption but people on YouTube posted videos showing that everything was gone within seconds in the retro redemption. Now imagine how the general redemption is gonna be. Unless you have ALOT of time, super hyperwarpspeed internet connection, I suggest you to get a job and save up money for that iPod, iPad or laptop.
How can I make a smoothie to replace a meal?
I am trying to eat healthier and lose weight. ai mostly just eat salad with chicken, ham or turkey on too. For a while I was eating yogurt with fruit and granola but it seems like too many calories. So I want to start drinking smoothies for breakfast. I am a college student so I don’t have a lot of time or money to spend. Im looking for simple recipes with fruit and some sort of protein powder, or anything really that would make a smoothie into a meal.
personally, I feel like google should always be the first place to go haha so much quicker!!! Being a woman, there are sooooo many protein powders out there and I would def not recommend purchasing any because 1 its expensive and 2 its really meant to help you gain muscle. My bf and his family are health nuts and the women in the family DO NOT take any of the guys protein powders. I would suggest stocking up on vitamins and really. As long as your exercising. The health benefits of grains and yogurt and fruit outweigh the amount of calories your taking in. Plus, when you eat healthy foods like that, your body tends to use more calories to digest the food then it does just taking it in.
I mean, I stuck to a 2,500 calorie limit a day ( and i didnt even manage to hit that limit most days) and I just ate smaller portions 4-5 times a day. Also managing to eat waaaay more veges then fruits (cuz fruits still have sugars) and I tended to stick to eating eggs in the morning. Cuz its a protein that doesnt need to come in a powder and its healthyyy. Haha and can be relatively cheap.
I know you said you were on a bit of a budget, but I HIGHLY suggest getting this book:
dont let the author fool you. It is the bible my bf goes by. And its not just for dudes who want to gain muscle. It can be used for anyone who wants to truly know how to isolate and work out certain muscles and youd be surprised what kind of tricks you can find thatll shrink any part of your body. GL!
Where can you find a list of all the solar panel companies they gave money ?
We are thinking one has gone bankrupt, another just lost $200 million, if they are listed on the stock exchange and if you can buy puts on them you could make a mint.
Subsidizing alternative energy is a drop in the bucket, when compared to the amount of subsidies garnered by oil companies…
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